University of the Pacific’s Business Forecasting Center says California’s unemployment rate could conceivably reach 10% by late next year. Right now it’s just above 8%.
The center’s Jeff Michael says unemployment in the Sacramento area job market will also go up. The area is dominated by state government jobs.
But Michael says even though public employees are safer than their private counterparts, California’s budget crisis will hit them too.
“Whether we start to see layoffs of state workers or even just furlough days that cut into their income and their spending around town. On the plus side, Sacramento doesn’t have much exposure to the manufacturing sector and that’s actually the sector that we think is going to have the roughest time in 2009.”
Michael predicts the only sectors that will not shrink in 2009 are healthcare, private education and repair and maintenance jobs.