KXJZ News Calculations: Sac Mayoral Runoff Likely

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(Sacramento, CA)
Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Don’t expect the final word on the Sacramento mayor’s race for at least a week.  The county elections department says there are more than 15-thousand vote-by-mail ballots left to count – probably thousands more.  Based on unofficial calculations done by KXJZ News, a runoff between Kevin Johnson and Heather Fargo is likely -- but not guaranteed. 
We’ll spare you the details on how we came to this conclusion, other than to say we took numbers from the county elections department, made some safe assumptions, and figured out a range of possible outcomes.

Based on our calculations, Kevin Johnson will have to win at least 55 percent of the remaining vote-by-mail ballots to avoid a runoff, while Heather Fargo must win at least 65 percent.
Neither candidate won more than half of the first batch of vote-by-mail ballots, according to totals from Election Night.
Brad Buyse with Sacramento County Elections says it’ll take 7-to-10 days to count every vote.
Buyse: “We’re gonna start processing the ballots on Thursday and Friday, and we should know probably by the mid part of next week exactly where we stand.” 
Speaking of where things stand, Johnson currently leads Fargo 47 percent to 40 percent – a difference of only about 3,200 votes.