It's Fargo 37 percent, Johnson 30 in the KXJZ News/Sacramento Bee poll released Friday morning. About 30 percent of voters surveyed are still undecided. That's despite Johnson's huge fundraising advantage: Figures released Thursday show the former NBA star has topped the million dollar mark to date, while Fargo has raised less than $200,000.
On the other hand, the strikingly negative campaign has so far not had much of an effect on either candidate. Just 30 percent of voters polled said they had a negative opinion of Fargo, and only 27 percent said the same of Johnson.
Over half still approve of the mayor's job performance. The poll of 500 likely city voters was conducted within the last week by Baldassare Associates, a non-partisan public opinion research firm. It had a 4-and-a-half percent margin of error.
Correction: Earlier (and on the air), KXJZ incorrectly stated that Baldassare Associates was a "non-profit" public opinion research firm. We meant to say "non-partisan." We regret the error.
READ THE
KXJZ NEWS AND SACRAMENTO BEE SURVEY ON THE
SACRAMENTO MAYOR’S RACE
Conducted by Baldassare Associates
500 Sacramento likely voters
May 15-19, 2008
SACRAMENTO MAYOR’S RACE
As the Sacramento mayoral race heads into its final days, incumbent Heather Fargo holds a 7-point lead over closest challenger Kevin Johnson (37% to 30%), while fewer than five percent support other candidates. However, with nearly three in 10 likely voters still undecided on their choice for mayor, the outcome of the June 3rd election is far from certain.
Mayor Fargo holds a sizeable edge over Johnson in the key group of voters aged 45 and older (40% to 29%), who typically are the most likely to turn out on election day, while the two are statistically tied among younger voters (30% to 34%). Fargo also has a sizeable lead among voters with household incomes of $100,000 or more (42% to 29%), while again, the two are virtually tied among those earning less (35% to 32%). Johnson draws more support among men than women (33% to 28%), while Fargo is favored equally by both genders. The vote divides sharply along party lines, with 47 percent of Democrats backing Fargo and 48 percent of Republicans favoring Johnson. There are also significant differences by racial/ethnic group: white voters strongly support Fargo over Johnson (43% to 27%), while voters in other racial/ethnic groups give Johnson a wide margin over Fargo (45% to 23%). Still, at least one in four voters in all demographic groups have not yet decided how they will vote in the upcoming mayoral election.
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“On June 3rd, there will be an election for mayor of Sacramento. If the election were held today, would you vote for…”
|
|
Likely Voters
|
Age |
Gender |
Party |
18-44
|
45+
|
Women
|
Men
|
Dem
|
Rep
|
| Heather Fargo |
37% |
30% |
40% |
37% |
36% |
47% |
17% |
Kevin Johnson
|
30 |
34 |
29 |
28 |
33 |
23 |
48 |
Leonard Padilla
|
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
Shawn Eldredge
|
1 |
<1>
|
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
Muriel Strand
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
<1>
|
Richard Jones
|
<1>
|
<1>
|
<1>
|
<1>
|
<1>
|
<1>
|
<1>
|
Don’t know
|
29 |
31 |
26 |
30 |
27 |
26 |
30 |
FAVORABILITY OF TOP CANDIDATES
Overall, Fargo enjoys high regard among Sacramento voters, with 50 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of her while 30 percent are unfavorable and one in five have no opinion. Her favorability is highest among older voters, women, whites and Democrats, where more than half have a positive opinion. However, a majority of Republicans have a negative image of Fargo (53%). More than a quarter of younger voters and those in other ethnic/racial groups say they don’t know enough about Fargo to have an opinion. And Fargo’s favorability doesn’t necessarily translate into votes: of those with a positive opinion of her, 64 percent say they intend to vote for her but 20 percent are undecided and 13 percent plan to cast their ballot for Johnson. What’s more, 35 percent of those who are favorable toward Fargo also like Johnson.
Johnson is more of an unknown to Sacramento likely voters. Fewer than half have a favorable opinion of the community activist and former NBA player (42%), while voters are about equally likely to say they don’t know enough about him (31%) as to have a negative opinion (27%). Johnson’s popularity is greatest among younger voters, men, Republicans and voters in other racial/ethnic groups, and he does not have high negatives in any group. However, one in three older voters, women and Democrats have no opinion of him. Of those who are favorable, 63 percent say they will vote for him while 20 percent are still unsure and 14 percent plan to support Fargo. And 41 percent of those who like Johnson also like his opponent.
“Please tell me whether your opinion of … is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t know enough about … to have an opinion.” |
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Don’t Know |
Heather Fargo |
Likely Voters |
50% |
30% |
20% |
Age |
18-44 |
43 |
31 |
26 |
45+ |
54 |
29 |
17 |
Gender |
Women |
53 |
28 |
19 |
Men |
47 |
32 |
21 |
Party |
Democrat |
61 |
19 |
20 |
Republican |
30 |
53 |
17 |
Race/Ethnicity |
White |
55 |
29 |
16 |
Other |
43 |
30 |
27 |
Kevin Johnson |
Likely Voters |
42% |
27% |
31% |
Age |
18-44 |
48 |
29 |
23 |
45+ |
41 |
27 |
32 |
Gender |
Women |
38 |
28 |
34 |
Men |
47 |
27 |
26 |
Party |
Democrat |
35 |
31 |
34 |
Republican |
59 |
15 |
26 |
Race/Ethnicity |
White |
39 |
33 |
28 |
Other |
58 |
11 |
31 |
FARGO AND JOHNSON PERFORMANCE RATINGS
As for performance ratings, a majority of voters are satisfied with the way Fargo has handled her job as mayor (55%), while three in 10 disapprove. At least half of voters in all groups approve of Fargo’s performance during her two terms in office, with the exception of Republicans, among whom 57 percent disapprove. Fargo’s ratings are highest among older voters, women, white voters and Democrats. However, while six in 10 of those who give Fargo high marks for her performance as mayor say they intend to vote for her in June, 24 percent are still undecided and 12 percent say they support Johnson’s mayoral bid.
Far fewer voters have an opinion on Johnson’s performance in managing the St. HOPE community development organization he founded and the Sacramento Charter High School it operates. About four in 10 approve of the job he has done with the organization, while about the same number have no opinion. The only segment where more than half give Johnson a positive job performance rating is voters in other racial/ethnic groups (53%). Nearly half of Republicans also approve. Of those giving Johnson positive performance ratings, six in 10 say they will vote for him, 23 percent are undecided and 15 percent plan to back Fargo.
“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way…” |
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Don’t Know |
Heather Fargo has handled her job as mayor of Sacramento |
Likely Voters |
55% |
31% |
14% |
Age |
18-44 |
50 |
33 |
17 |
45+ |
57 |
30 |
13 |
Gender |
Women |
58 |
30 |
12 |
Men |
52 |
33 |
15 |
Party |
Democrat |
66 |
20 |
14 |
Republican |
31 |
57 |
12 |
Race/Ethnicity |
White |
58 |
30 |
12 |
Other |
50 |
32 |
18 |
Kevin Johnson has managed St. HOPE and the Sacramento Charter High School |
Likely Voters |
38% |
20% |
42% |
Age |
18-44 |
39 |
18 |
43 |
45+ |
38 |
21 |
41 |
Gender |
Women |
35 |
21 |
44 |
Men |
41 |
19 |
40 |
Party |
Democrat |
32 |
25 |
43 |
Republican |
49 |
9 |
42 |
Race/Ethnicity |
White |
33 |
23 |
44 |
Other |
53 |
9 |
38 |
MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING SACRAMENTO
Crime and public safety tops voters’ list of the problems currently facing their city. Asked in an open-ended question what they thought was Sacramento’s most important problem, 22 percent named crime and public safety, far surpassing mentions of any other issues. Next on the list were jobs, the economy and local business concerns (13%), the city budget and spending (12%), and population growth and development (11%). One in 10 mentioned the revitalization of the downtown area as the city’s most pressing problem, while 7 percent named traffic and transportation. Other issues, mentioned by fewer than 5 percent each, were housing (4%), public schools (4%), flood control and levees (2%), the homeless (2%), and the Kings Arena (2%), while 2 percent named various other issues and 10 percent were undecided.
Older and less affluent voters are somewhat more concerned than others about jobs and economic issues. Crime is of significantly more concern to voters in other racial/ethnic groups than to whites (31% to 19%), and Republicans are more likely than Democrats to mention the city budget and spending (16% to 10%). Otherwise, Sacramento voters’ views on the city’s most important problems are remarkably similar across groups.
Johnson supporters are more likely than Fargo supporters to name crime as the city’s top problem (29% to 18%). Of those who say they intend to vote for Fargo, growth and development is tied with crime and the
economy in their assessments of the city’s most important problem.
Among those who say crime is the most important problem, 39 percent say they will vote for Johnson, edging out Fargo (31%), with 5 percent supporting other candidates and 25 percent undecided. Thirty-six percent of voters who are most concerned about crime disapprove of the job Fargo has done as mayor. Among those naming other problems, Fargo leads Johnson in the vote for mayor (40% to 26%), with 5 percent backing others and 29 percent undecided. In this group, 28 percent give Fargo a negative job performance rating.
“What do you think is the most important problem facing the city of Sacramento today?” |
(Top mentions) |
Likely
Voters | Age | Vote for mayor |
18-44 |
45+ |
Fargo |
Johnson |
| Crime and public safety |
22% |
23% |
21% |
18% |
29% |
Jobs, the economy, local business |
13 |
9 |
14 |
15 |
11 |
City budget, spending |
12 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
13 |
Growth and development |
11 |
13 |
11 |
17 |
7 |
Revitalizing downtown area |
9 |
12 |
8 |
7 |
12 |
Traffic, transportation |
7 |
4 |
8 |
9 |
6 |
LEADERSHIP
Asked which candidate they thought would do a better job providing leadership in solving Sacramento’s most pressing issues, voters were evenly divided between Fargo and Johnson (35% to 32%). Nearly as many voters were undecided on this question (28%).
Among those naming crime as the top problem, Johnson was more likely to be seen as the better leader than Fargo (39% to 29%). Fargo was chosen as the better candidate among those most concerned about other issues (40% to 27%).
“Which of the mayoral candidates do you think would do a better job of providing leadership in addressing the problems facing Sacramento today?” |
|
Likely Voters | Most Important Problem |
Crime |
Other |
| Heather Fargo |
35% |
29% |
40% |
Kevin Johnson |
32 |
39 |
27 |
Other |
5 |
9 |
5 |
Don’t know |
28 |
23 |
28 |
INTEREST IN ELECTION
Sacramento’s high-profile mayoral election has captured local residents’ attention. Seven in 10 say they have been following the mayor’s race closely, including nearly one in four watching it very closely. Older voters have been paying the closest attention (25% very closely), but two in three younger voters say they have been following news about the mayoral election at least somewhat closely.
Johnson is the favorite candidate among those who have been following the news very closely (43%), and only 16 percent in this group are still undecided. Among those who have been following the election fairly closely, Fargo is the top choice for mayor (41%), while one in five have not settled on a candidate. And of voters who have not been paying too much attention to the race, Fargo beats out Johnson by a two-to-one margin (31% to 15%); however half in this group are still undecided.
How closely have you been following news about the Sacramento mayoral election? |
|
Very closely
|
Fairly closely
|
Not closely
|
Likely voters |
22% |
49% |
29% |
Vote for mayor
88%
22%
35% |
Fargo |
34% |
41% |
31% |
Johnson |
43 |
33 |
15 |
Don’t know |
16 |
21 |
51 |
| | | | | | |
METHODOLOGY
The Sacramento Bee and KXJZ News Survey on the Sacramento mayoral election was conducted by Baldassare Associates, a non-partisan, independent public opinion research firm. The results are based on telephone interviews with 500 likely voters in the city of Sacramento. Interviewing was conducted May 15-19, 2008 on weekday evenings and weekend days. Respondents were selected at random from a list of Sacramento city registered voters who were identified as likely to cast ballots in the June 3rd mayoral election based on their voting history. Each interview included 13 questions and took approximately 5 minutes to complete. The data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences between the survey sample and the total likely voter population. Results may not add up to 100% because of rounding.
The margin of error due to sampling is plus or minus 4.5% for the total sample. That means that 95 times out of 100, the results are within 4.5 percentage points of what they would be if every likely voter in the city of Sacramento were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. Sampling error is just one type of error that can affect opinion surveys. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order and interview timing.
It should be noted that surveys provide a snapshot of opinions at the time they were conducted and do not necessarily predict future behavior.
All respondents were guaranteed confidentiality; however some agreed to provide their names and be reinterviewed for news stories on the topic.
SACRAMENTO BEE AND KXJZ NEWS SURVEY
ON SACRAMENTO MAYOR’S RACE
Conducted by Baldassare Associates
500 Sacramento likely voters
May 15-19, 2008
1. On June 3rd, there will be an election for mayor of Sacramento. If the election were held today, would you vote for:
Heather Fargo, mayor 37%
Kevin Johnson, businessman and school administrator 30
Leonard Padilla, bounty hunter 2
Shawn D. Eldredge, contractor 1
Muriel Strand, retired engineer 1
Richard Jones, insurance broker --
Don't know 29
2. Please tell me whether your opinion of Mayor Heather Fargo is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t know enough about her to have an opinion.
Favorable 50%
Unfavorable 30
Don't know 20
3. Please tell me whether your opinion of St. Hope CEO and former NBA player Kevin Johnson is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.
Favorable 42%
Unfavorable 27
Don't know 31
4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Heather Fargo has handled her job as mayor of Sacramento?
Approve 55%
Disapprove 31
Don't know 14
5. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Kevin Johnson has managed St. HOPE and the Sacramento Charter High School?
Approve 38%
Disapprove 20
Don't know 42
6. What do you think is the most important problem facing the city of Sacramento today?
Crime/public safety 22%
Jobs/the economy 13
City budget/spending 12
Population growth and development 11
Revitaziling the downtown area 9
Traffic/transportation 7
Housing 4
Public schools/education 4
Flood control/levees 2
The homeless 2
Kings Arena 2
Other 2
Don't know 10
7. Which of the mayoral candidates do you think would do a better job of providing leadership in addressing the problems facing Sacramento today?
Heather Fargo 35%
Kevin Johnson 32
Leonard Padilla 3
Shawn D. Eldredge 2
Richard Jones --
Muriel Strand --
Don't know 28
8. Finally, how closely have you been following news about the Sacramento mayoral election? Would you say you have been following it very closely, fairly closely, not too closely or not at all closely?
Very closely 22%
Fairly closely 49
Not too closely 23
Not at all closely 6